What clicked for Narendra Modi?

As expected Narendra Modi secured yet another decisive victory in Gujarat assembly elections 2012 on Thursday. The BJP winning 120 seats approximately surely will propel him to the national stage, but here’s a look at the factors that played a role in his victory.

Development agenda: Narendra Modi has been highlighting development in the state under his rule. While it is true that the Gujarat does not rank high on several social indicators, industrial development has indeed gathered pace across the state in the last decade.

Darling of Urban middle class: One clear trend that has emerged is the overwhelming support Modi has secured in urban Gujarat. It is a near clean sweep across major cities for the BJP. However, it also highlights that the rural voter does not share the enthusiasm of urban Gujarat towards Modi’s ‘Vibrant Gujarat’.

Weak Congress: The Congress is in shambles. The tragedy is amplified as top state leaders like Arjun Modhwadia and Gordhan Zadafia have bitten dust. National leaders of the party Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi did campaign in the state but have not managed to break Modi’s citadel. The lack of a strong state leadership in the state, coupled with the Congress’ aversion to directly take on Modi – after the Maut Ka Saudagar fiasco – did the grand party in.

Modi as PM: The calculative Gujarati seems to have to have also bought into the growing ‘Modi as PM’ chorus. They may have taken him as a symbol of Gujarati pride and the community’s first real chance to have one of their own as the Prime Minister of India.

Narendra Modi’s make or break day today

A television channel which wanted to put up a giant screen in front of the BJP headquarters in Khanpur had made all the preparations for a live telecast on result day on Thursday. They were told on Wednesday morning by some BJP office-bearers that there is no guarantee of safety for the expensive equipment if the results went bad for the BJP. The channel selected an alternative site, till intervention came from a worried chief minister’s office which re-directed them back to Khanpur, the strangely named Hindutva hub of Ahmedabad with a Muslim basti all around in this age of benign Sadbhavana.

There is nervousness in the BJP, even as Modi himself went into a huddle, asking the same question on every Gujarati’s mind: ‘Shun laage chhe, boss?’ Modi is believed to have settled at a figure of 112-118 seats after talking to all his ministers and district party heads, besides some shadowy techies in his office who were flummoxed by the 71.32% voter turnout. Close aide Amit Shah is betting on 123 seats and Narhari Amin, who recently changed sides, at 125. They don’t feel that the ‘Ghar nu ghar’ of the Congress worked at all.

The poor, they believe, supported the middle-class hero. Preparations are on in full swing for the swearing in of the new government at four different locations, the biggest one being the Sardar Patel stadium. Some say given his penchant for symbols, Modi would like to time it with former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s birthday which falls on the Christmas day – December 25.

For Narendra Modi, the stakes are perhaps the highest — a bad show here would certainly impair his national ambitions. It was a confident-looking chief minister who discussed water problems in Saurashtra at the weekly cabinet meeting held on Wednesday.

On the other hand, Shankersinh Vaghela, self-proclaimed captain of Congress, has been telling supporters to be ready to form the next government. He looks supremely confident and is in close touch with Keshubhai Patel on the likely scenario of a hung assembly or marginal win.

The RSS is also closely monitoring the situation and would like to keep negotiations open with Keshubhai, just in case he emerges as a force which could tilt the power balance. The GPP camp fears attempts at horse-trading. But the GPP also faces the prospect of being completely irrelevant in case Modi gets a sweeping majority.

Pramukh Swami’s birthday on the election result day

BAPS chief Shri Pramukh Swami’s birthday( as per the Gujarati Hindu calendar tithi) will be celebrated exactly on the Gujarat election results day, 20th December.

Gujarat Chief Minister Shri Narendra Modi may visit Shri Pramukh Swami on the election result day or just before that. In 2007 the Chief Minister had visited Shri Pramukh Swami, Shri Keshubhai Patel and mother Hiraba just before the oath taking ceremony on 25th of December.

Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) leader Keshubhai Patel will address a press conference at party headquarters in Ahmedabad. GPP said Shri Keshubhai will address the press irrespective of any outcome of the elections.

GPP candidates contested on 174 seats. As per the rules of the Election Commission, GPP will need to get minimum 6% votes and two elected candidates to retain its election symbol of cricket bat.

20th December(Gujarati calendar tithi Magsar Sud Aatham) will be Shri Pramukh Swami’s 92th birthday.

Born on 7-12-1921 in Vadodara district’s Padra taluka’s Chansad village, original name was Shantilal. He became saint at the age of 18. His Guru was Shastriji maharaj.

He was appointed Pramukh(chief) of Bochasanwasi Akshar Purushottam Sanastha(BAPS) in 1950.

Campaign programme of Rupala, Sidhu, Smriti, Kanoadias and others

BJP leader Parshottam Rupala will address six public meetings on 12 December at Varahi(Radhanpur), Bhildi(Diyodar), Danta, Chhapi(Vadgam), Kheralu and Mansa.

BJP’s national secretary Navjot Singh Sidhu will address five public meetings at Pandori(Anand), Mahudha, Idar, Palanpur and Visnagar on 12 December.

Rajya Sabha MP Smriti Irani will address five campaign rallies on 12 December:

10.15 am Mandvi

11.30 am Abdasa

4.00 pm Sidhpur

6.00 pm Palanpur

7.30 pm Deesa

Film actor Niraj Vora will address four public meetings:

3.30 pm Mehsana

6.00 pm Naroda

7.00 pm Amraiwadi

8.00 pm Vijay chowk

Gujarati film actors Mahesh Naresh Kanoadia will address three public rallies:

6.00 pm Chamanpura chakla

7.15 pm Ambedkar hall, BRTS road, Danilimda

8.15 pm Shakti chowk, Avadhpuri, Isanpur gam

Gujarati film actor Feroze Irani will address public meeting and hold a road show at 7.00 pm in Vejalpur assembly area.

Film actor Manoj Joshi will hold a road show and address public meeting at 9.00 pm in Vadodara.